Q473. This is one of a series of problems (469, 470, 471, 472, 474, 475, 476, 477, 478) relating to the same fictional case: The community of Ourville which is considering some options for creating parks to enhance the quality of life of local residents. The amounts are expressed in simple numbers – e.g., $100 – which you can assume to be referring to realistic amounts – e.g., hundreds of thousands.

Two options are on the table for the community of Ourville. Either option will cost $100. Option A — the West Park – provides $80 of benefits (total) to families who live close to the west park location and $52 (total) to families who live farther away on the east side of town. Option B – the East Park – provides $40 to the first group of families and $110 to the second group. What do you recommend and why?

q0473-cba-01.jpg

Q424. Fill in the blank boxes in this summary diagram for how hierarchy can generate social order. Note that the diagram is purely schematic - you might decide there are more or fewer boxes in different cases or the arrows might not go directly to coordination first, etc.

course-summary-hierarchy.gif

Q142. Improve this sentence from a paper on Goffman

Many things can create a distraction during a performance, which is an example of maintenance of expressive control.


Q442. Explain what Durkheim is talking about when he suggests that egoism is the opposite of social.


Q201. (1) Explain what 'the allegory of the dying seminar' was in Thomas Schelling's work. (2) What (incorrect) conclusion about human behavior might observers draw from the dying seminar? (3) What other examples of this phenomenon does Schelling offer? (4) What generic phenomenon are these all examples of?


Q477. This is one of a series of problems (469, 470, 471, 472, 473, 474, 475, 476, 478) relating to the same fictional case: The community of Ourville which is considering some options for creating parks to enhance the quality of life of local residents. The amounts are expressed in simple numbers – e.g., $100 – which you can assume to be referring to realistic amounts – e.g., hundreds of thousands.

Earlier in the process, two options were on the table for the community of Ourville. One proposal was for a pocket park that will cost only $10 and is projected to have $50 benefit — a benefit to cost ratio of 5 to 1. The other proposal is a more elaborate park that will cost $50 and have a benefit of $100 — a benefit to cost ratio of 2 to 1. The town budget could afford either project – either one pocket park or one larger park, but not both. What would you recommend and why?


Q459. What, to your mind, was the best article of the course - the one you really understood or that really clicked for you or that you've taken to explaining to friends and family it's so awesome. Describe it in a manner that shows the depth of your understanding.


Q320. Explain this diagram:

lambert-conic-diagram.png

Q462. Sketch a logic model for buying a house.


Q282. Explain these acronyms: USGS, NOAA, NASA


Q264. What is a datum?


Q374. "Social order triumphs over the state of nature by coercion…." Attribute and explain.


Q364. Thinking back to the Kanazawa article on evolutionary biology, use this diagram to talk about at least six different ideas from this course.

action-time-self-01.gif

Q366. A storyboard is a technique for graphically organizing the telling of a story. Think about how you would explain Mead's theory of the social self as a theory of how the human individual is a vehicle for the generation of social order. Imagine how you would represent the theory visually and how you would explain it textually.

storyboard.png

Q262. Explain the difference between equal interval, quantile, natural break, and standard deviation as classification methods If your data looked like this, and you have 5 class intervals, what would they be if you used each method?

state-pop-density-data.png

Q360. What is the relevance of the diagram below to the Cohen and Vandello excerpt?

cohen-vandello-01.png

Q265. Identify graphical elements of a map: border, legend, scalebar, north arrow, author, date, projection, coordinates, data source, data date, title, body of map


Q143. Wordsmith this opening sentence:

I will discuss some of the concepts discussed by Erving Goffman in his book The Presentation of Self in Everyday Life, which he elaborates face to face interactions, and the different roles that everyone takes in presenting themselves.


Q464. (a) Suppose a friend makes the following offer: "I am willing to give you $10 right now, 25$ in 3 years or $200 in ten years." Describe the logic you might use to see which of these is the best deal. Calculate the present value of each opportunity and use the results to sketch a simple decision tree. Assume a discount rate of 5%

(b)If you have the choice between paying a cash price right now or spreading the payments out over 12 months with no interest, which would you choose and why?


Q446. Walk us through Tocqueville's contrast of aristocratic society where citizens are bound to, say, their local noble, and democratic society where citizens are independent. He wants to say that the latter can't get anything done unless they know how to organize and associate.


Q454. Consider the essay you wrote for the warm-up assignment at the start of this course on a film or book in which social order "disappeared." How would you re-write it in a manner that would show off some of what you learned in this course?


Q342. With which theorists do we associate this diagram? Explain what it means in the context of their work.

cohen-vandello-02-politeness-violence.png

Q197. Explain and give an example of a dominant strategy in a prisoner's dilemma game.


Q341. Explain what George Herbert Mead means when he describes "self consciousness" as becoming aware of oneself as an object for others. How is it that this is what gives rise to the "social self"?


Q472. This is one of a series of problems (469, 470, 471, 473, 474, 475, 476, 477, 478) relating to the same fictional case: The community of Ourville which is considering some options for creating parks to enhance the quality of life of local residents. The amounts are expressed in simple numbers – e.g., $100 – which you can assume to be referring to realistic amounts – e.g., hundreds of thousands.

One option on the table for the community of Ourville is to build a park on the west side of town. Should we spend $100 to build a new park? Studies have determined that the park will provide $132 of benefits to the community's residents. What do you recommend and why?


Q106. She may love you or she may not. It turns out there is a 40% chance she does. You decide to use the buttercup test to find out (hold a buttercup under chin and see if it reflects yellow). The test is 90% accurate. Draw tree and flip to determine what conclusions we can draw from positive and negative buttercup test results.


Q334. Describe, with examples, the policy implications of a theory that has individuals and their shared meanings as the main source of social order.


Q333. Consider each of the actions listed in the left column of this table. Thinking like Max Weber, in the other columns of each row, give a short explanation of how the action could be oriented in each of four ways (instrumentally rational, value rational, affectual, traditional). In some cases, you might conclude that it is simply too far fetched for an action to be subject to a particular orientation; these can be noted with an "X."

Action Instrumentally Rational
zweckrational
Value Rational
wertrational
Affectual Traditional
Greetings
Investing
Picking a major
Helping an elderly person
Clipping coupons
Setting the table
Exercising
Praying
Observing holy days
Doing a class assignment
Going to college
Respecting one's elders

Q77. Draw a flow charts that represents "Do A until B" and "While B do A. Then do C".


Q223. A non-profit supplier of after-school materials has orders for 600 copies from San Francisco and 400 copies from Sacramento. The organization has 700 copies in a warehouse in Novato and 800 copies in a warehouse in Lodi. It costs $5 to ship a text from Novato to San Francisco, but it costs $10 to ship it to Sacramento. It costs $15 to ship from Lodi to San Francisco, but it costs $4 to ship it from Lodi to Sacramento. How many copies should the organization ship from each warehouse to San Francisco and Sacramento to fill the order at the least cost? [http://www.sonoma.edu/users/w/wilsonst/Courses/Math_131/lp/default.html]


24. Donald Black described 6 styles of social control – penal, conciliatory, therapeutic, compensatory, prevention, and reform. Show that you understand what these are and how they fit into this course by considering the different styles of social control that might be employed in conflicts that could emerge between employee and employer or in the workplace in general..


Q59. Consider the following things1 that can flow or move on a network:

Used books
Money
Smiles
Gossip
Taught knowledge
Mooching friends/relatives
Email
Attitudes
Workers (flowing among jobs)
Infection
Packages
Greetings
Tips/how-to-info
Help/favors/acts of kindness

Categorize these in terms of four characteristics:

  1. The mechanics of diffusion: does diffusion occur via replication (copy mechanism) or transfer (move mechanism)?
  2. (applicable only to replication-based flows) Is the duplication is one at a time (serial), like giving a paperback to a friend, or simultaneous (parallel), like a radio broadcast.
  3. Does the traffic flow deliberately or blindly/randomly?
  4. Does the traffic revisit places it's already been? That is, is the flow on paths (no node repeats), trails (no edge repeats), or walks (visiting nodes and edges perhaps repeatedly).

Q448. Why is the Tocqueville selection in the "groups as a source of social order" section of the text?


Q253. Consider this network in which green agents are cooperators and violet are defectors and the cost of cooperating is 2 while the benefit of being cooperated with is 5. Where is the equilibrium is people's behavior changes based on their network experiences?

network-reciprocity-02.png

Q172. Consider this data on the thresholds in a population. Draw a frequency histogram and cumulative frequency diagram. If news reports suggest participation will be at 20 people, how many people's threshold is met or exceeded? How about if the number is 70?

p0172-table-a.gif

Q384. Hobbes suggests that in a state of "warre" "there is no place for Industry…no culture…no Navigation…no commodious Building…no Knowledge…." (93.9). Explain how this can be translated as "none of the benefits of cooperation."


Q40. Structural equivalence problems


Q394. What does Weber mean by "the routinization of charisma"? (118ff)


Q192. A student wants to maximize her GPA. Three of her courses are required 3 credit courses and she estimates she will get a B in each. She has a choice between an easier 3 credit course that she can definitely get an A in and a slightly harder 4 credit course in which she expects a B+. What will she do?


Q3 What is the expected value of a two dice toss if the payoff is whatever comes up on the dice, in dollars? Sketch this as a decision tree with just chance nodes.


Q39. Cohesive subgroups problems


Q327. Our agency provides three types of client service: A, B, and C. And we have 3 kinds of staff: X, Y, and Z.

Each type A service requires 3 hours of an X staff member's time and 1 hour of a Y. Type B requires 2 X, 1 Y, and 3 Z hours. And type C requires 1 X, 3 Y, and 2 Z.

Currently we have 2 X, 1 Y and 1 Z on staff. We pay X's $25 per hour, Ys get $30 and Zs get $40. Assume everyone works a 35 hour week. At 35 hours per week our labor costs are 4200.

Revenue from type A service is $100, B is $200, and C is $300.

Regulations require that we serve at least 5 of each client type each week and that we serve at total of at least 21 clients each week.

What client mix will allow us to maximize revenue?

Excel Worksheet here.


Q162. Explain this passage by Durkheim:

In “The Origin of Beliefs,” Emile Durkheim writes

" Thus it is not the intrinsic nature of the thing who name the clan bore that set it apart as the object of worship. Furthermore, if the emotion elicited by the thing itself really was the determining cause of totemic rites and beliefs, then this thing would also be the sacred being par excellence, and the animals and plants used as totems would play the leading role in religious life. But we know that the focus of the cult is elsewhere. It is symbolic representations of this or that plant or animal. It is totemic emblems and symbols of all kinds that possess the greatest sanctity. And so it is in totemic emblems and symbols that the religious source is to be found, while the real objects, represented by those emblems receive only a reflection” (49).

The totem is above all a symbol, a tangible expression of something else. But of what? (49)


Q356. Demonstrate your understanding of the George Herbert Mead excerpt and its connection to ideas about how the nature of the social individual is a "source" of social order by explaining this diagram. Use examples to illustrate your ideas.

sharedmeaningToOrderMead.png

17. Coser described several theorists whose work looked at "social control from the inside." What's the "technical term" for "social control from the inside"? Name three of these theorists and provide some identifying information (e.g., "Tongan psychotherapist who wrote in 1920s").


23. Both Donald Black and Robert Ellickson take care to distinguish between first, second, and third party social control. Most of this course has focused on one particular type of third party control – informal control through social norms. Using marriage/married life as an example, briefly demonstrate that you understand that control varies from personal ethics (first party, self control), promisee enforced contracts (second party), and the three types of third party control (organizational rules, law, and social norms) by describing ways each might come up in association with marriage, married relationships, etc..


Q452. Develop a summary diagram for the entire course. Some examples of the genre from a social control class in solutions.


Q239. I need to take a certification exam this year. The exam cost is $200. There is a prep course for the exam, but I don't know if I need it or not. It costs $300 and if one takes it, one is certain to pass the exam. If I do not take the prep course there is a 50% chance of passing and a 50% chance of failing in which case I'd have to take the prep course anyway and then retake the test (total cost = prep course + twice the exam fee). Should I take the prep course??


Q284. What are "map tiles"? Where do we encounter them? How do they work?


Q161. Comment on and improve upon the following text explication

Text Explication
“Whether an individual construes (language) as truth or error, understands it correctly or not, a set of findings meander throughout the community, becoming polished, transformed, reinforced or attenuated, while influencing other findings, concept formation, opinions, and habits of thought” (56). Thus, Fleck argues, language creates thought collectives. A thought collective is defined as a community of persons mutually exchanging ideas or maintaining intellectual interaction. Fleck believes that through the use of language, human’s form thought collectives with others whom they wish to share ideas with. With a sense of shared meaning evolves a sense of coordination.

Q241. If my new study method works, I should earn a 98 on the test. If it does not work, I will get a 79. Research suggests that there is a 75% chance it works. What is the expected value of my grade?

A. 87.5 B. 93.25 C. 95.5 D. 79 E. 98

Q474. This is one of a series of problems (469, 470, 471, 472, 473, 475, 476, 477, 478) relating to the same fictional case: The community of Ourville which is considering some options for creating parks to enhance the quality of life of local residents. The amounts are expressed in simple numbers – e.g., $100 – which you can assume to be referring to realistic amounts – e.g., hundreds of thousands.

The mayor of Ourville wants a more detailed analysis on option A. Apparently, the park could range in size from the very small to the very large. Budget concerns are not an issue for now. Examine the information below. What do you recommend and why? For example: What type of problem is this? What is the fundamental rule? How big should the park be?

q0474-cba-01.jpg

Q388. Explain what Weber means by legal authority.


Q246. What's wrong with this flow chart? How would you fix it?

flowchart-bad-02.png

Q235. Schelling’s piece, “Micromotives, Macrobehaviors,” is included because it demonstrates some specific conditions under which market interactions may lead to coordination but not cooperation. What are his two examples and what are the conditions that can affect whether market interactions lead to cooperation? Explain the role they play, perhaps using our class chairs and offices simulation as a point of reference, in limiting the optimism of Smith and Hayek for markets as a source of social order.


Q51. To transpose a matrix we simply swap its rows and columns:

A B C
D E F
G H I
> > > > A D G
B E H
C F I

or

A B C
D E F
> > > > A D
B E
C F

If the matrix is called $M$ then we write the transpose of M as $tr(M)$.

Transpose these three matrices

A B C
A B C D
D E F G
0 1 0 2
1 0 3 1
0 3 0 4
2 1 4 0
1 1 0
0 1 1
1 0 1

Q352. Explain what Hedstrom ("Dissecting the Social") meant when he said "differences in some social states or events are considered explained if the decomposition eliminates them" (13.8)?


Q75. Sketch a flowchart that represents this bit of logic: “If you can get a direct flight for under $1500 take it unless it leaves from SFO before 9 am. Otherwise, see if anything is available on frequent flier miles no matter what the routing. If you can’t find anything, use Expedia to find the cheapest flight out of OAK.”


Q133. College is a more or less four year endeavor but students come and go on different schedules. Sketch a stock and flow model that shows freshwomen applicants coming from the cloud, admitted students from applicants, and freshwomen from the admittees. Then freshwomen become sophomores, mostly, but there is some attrition. And so on through the other years. Sketch a stock and flow diagram that follows students through four years and think up some variables that might affect the flows between the different years. For this problem, you should try wearing the hat of an academic administrator who is interested in the problems of "retention" and "degree completion."


Q181. Which threshold frequency distribution corresponds to the following description:

This population is divided between those who are very easily persuaded to participate - they will jump on bandwagon readily - and people who are very reticent to join a movement, with relatively few people in between.

A. histogram01.gif B. histogram02.gif C. histogram03.gif
D. histogram04.gif E. histogram05.gif

Q371. A storyboard is a technique for graphically organizing the telling of a story. Think about how you would explain Kanazawa's description of evolutionary biology and its connection to our thinking about the basis for social order. Imagine how you would represent the theory visually and how you would explain it textually.

storyboard.png

Q393. What does Weber mean by "social levelling"? (111)


Q256. Consider the collective action model described in Lecture 17.4: Collective Action and Common Pool Resource Problems where $x_j$ is the cost to me to "pitch in" and do my part in some collective effort. Each member of the collective reaps benefits from the contributions of those who decide to pitch in. In particular, they receive some fraction $\beta$ of all the contributions. Their net benefit is thus, this amount minus the effort they contribute. In other words,

(1)
\begin{align} Payoff_j = -x_j + \beta \sum x_i \end{align}

Suppose you are in a class of 21 students and everyone is expected to prepare for class in a manner that costs 1 unit of life. In the class itself, things go much better when people are prepared and we estimate that the benefit a student derives from the class is equal to 0.2 units of life for each person who comes prepared.

(a) What is your net payoff if you do the reading half the class rest of the class comes prepared too?
(b) What is the benefit to a shirker under the same conditions?
(c) How many people do you need to think are going to do the reading to make it worth it to do the reading?


Q53. Practice constructing network survey instrument ("by hand"), administering and recording data.

  1. Sketch out (paper and pencil mode) a brief network questionnaire that includes
    1. Respondent name and a few demographics (e.g., sex and age)
    2. List of R's "confidantes"
  2. For each confidante we want to collect a bit of demographic info (e.g., sex and age)
  3. For each confidante we want to know whether R has particular activity tie (e.g., have you had dinner in the last week).
  4. Construct a grid that will let you record R's answers to whether for each pair of confidantes she has Xd with the two.
  5. Construct a grid that will let you record R's assessment of whether a particular relationship exists between each pair of confidantes.

Q156. A state corrections system has established a new drug treatment facility for first offenders. The center has a capacity of 1000.

Inmates may leave the facility in either of two ways. In any period, there is a 10 percent probability that an inmate will be judged rehabilitated, in which case s/he will be released at the beginning of the following period.. There is also a 5 percent chance that an inmate will escape during each period. Rehabilitated addicts have a 20 percent chance of relapsing in each period; escapees have a 10 percent chance of being recaptured each period. Both recidivists and recaptured escapees are returned to the facility and have priority over new offenders.

Questions

If it operates at full capacity, how many of the original inmates will be resident at the facility 10 periods later?
How many new offenders can be admitted during each of the next 2 periods?
What happens if we modify the model to allow for a small possibility of death or a change in the probability of relapse?


Q382. "A central idea in the readings in this section is that government matters" (87). Extend this idea to say that "organizations matter" in an argument about why some hierarchy is needed if we are to cooperate in groups of more than a few to get things done.


Q217. Sociologists and anthropologists gripe endlessly about rational actor models, failing, over and over again, to understand that they are MODELS, not descriptions. Explicate and comment on this passage to show that you understand what the value of a model like prisoner's dilemma is for social theory.

The Cooperation Theory that is presented…is based upon an investigation of individuals who pursue their own self-interest without the aid of a central authority to force them to cooperate with each other. The reason for assuming self-interest is that it allows an examination of the difficult case in which cooperation is not completely based upon a concern for others or upon the welfare of the group as a whole. It must, however, be stressed that this assumption is actually much less restrictive than it appears. … So the assumption of self interest is really just an assumption that concern for others does not completely solve the problem of when to cooperate with them and when not to (Axelrod 1984: 177.2).


Q48. Convert the information below - data on four organizations, listing the members of their boards of directors - into a network data format and then use a network visualization program to show the 2 mode network laid out nicely with nodes labeled.

Acme Association Boothwyn Foundation The Cannalo Organization Dynamic Educational Consulting
Allen Allen Barb Chris
Barb Ethan Chris Dante
Chris Fran Ethan Ethan
Dante Gent Fran Kelly
Harri Ishtar Lori
Jack Miguel

Q350. Some people summarize Durkheim's "theory of religion" by saying that he discovered that "god is society." Explain the logic of this.


Q361. In the public goods game described by Fehr and Gintis, explain why we impose a cost on the punishER for each punishment issued. What does willingness to impose a punishment despite a cost suggest about the actor who does so?


Q170. Suppose you have a population of one hundred persons. It is divided into five categories of willingness to join a protest all of which depend on people's expectations of how many others will appear at the protest. The thresholds range from very low (I'll go if anyone else is going) to the very high (I won't go unless basically everybody else is going).

Assume the population is divided among these categories as follows:

Challenge of Recruiting Very Easy Easy Average Hard Very Hard
Participation Threshold 1 10 40 60 99
Number at this threshold 10 20 40 20 10

a. If news reports suggest that 15 people will show up, how many actually will?

b. If last week saw participation of 41 and this is widely reported so that everyone knows, how many will come out this week? And then next week? And after that?

c. What if 91 came last week?


Q273. What kind of map is this:

oakland-east-quad-1.jpg

Q288. How would you estimate the number of people who live within 500 meters of MacArthur Blvd in Oakland?


Q449. What does Hechter mean by "the extensiveness of corporate obligations"?


Q426. Weber's definition, please:

traditional authority
rational legal authority
charismatic authority


Q202. (a) Set up the issue of whether to use the metric system or the English system of weights and measures as a coordination game. (b) Identify any equilibria and whether they are efficient or not. (c) If we are in the English/English cell, describe both players' motivations to unilaterally switch to metric. (d) what if we were in the metric/English cell?


Q245. Offer a critique of this flow chart diagram

flowchart-bad-01.png

Q193. In "Cosmos & Taxis" Friedrich von Hayek distinguishes two kinds of order. What does he call them? What are some synonyms for his terms? Demonstrate your understanding of the difference by giving examples of social order of each type.


Q347. George Herbert Mead writes of "taking the attitude of the other" as a necessary part of social life.

"…the complex co-operative processes … organized human society are also possible only in so far as every individual involved in them … can take the general attitudes of all other such individuals … and can direct his own behavior accordingly" (61.5).

Give an example of a social situation that bears this out, describing the various participants and how they can "take the attitude of the others" and what would happen if they got it wrong, or in situations where people do this less well or less completely.


Q151. A cinema has a marquee with lots and lots of light bulbs. In any given week 1% of the light bulbs burn out. Unfortunately, between being busy and being sloppy, replacement is a little bit sporadic. Of all the bulbs that are burnt out, about 95% get replaced each week. Draw the state diagram for this system.


Q261. Explain these acronyms: DMS, EPSG, CRS


Q398. According to Willis, what is the "main theme of shopfloor culture"? Explain and give examples.


Q330. Equilibrium came up many times in this course. Briefly catalog several and describe the concept and its importance. Be sure you can address (1) whether it is a normative concept (2) stable vs. unstable (3) different examples.


Q255. Work through the section on direct reciprocity in Nowak and Sigmund, "How Populations Cohere."


Q167. Suppose we have a diffusion process in which all susceptibles who are in contact with an infected in a given time period become infected in the next time period. On the grids below color in squares to indicate what happens over the first six time periods beginning with one infected. Then fill in the table and chart the data.

p0167-grid.gif
p0167-table.gif
p0167-chart.gif

Q126. Why do people scream into cell phones? Answer in terms of feedback.


Q281. Explain these acronyms: AAG, ABAG, BART


Q317. Match the name with the projection.
South Polar Azimuthal | Mercator | Albers Equal Area Conic | Mollweide | Lambert Conformal Conic | North Polar Azimuthal
albersequalareaconic0.png mercator0.png Mollweide0.png
northpolarazimuthal0.png southpolarazimuthal0.png lambertconformal0.png

Q439. Freud in "Civilization and Its Discontents" gives us a theory of how conscience arises and functions. In the selection on anomic suicide Durkheim gives an account of conscience as controlling our otherwise potentially infinite (and unsatisfiable) desires. Compare and contrast.


Q469. This is one of a series of problems (470, 471, 472, 473, 474, 475, 476, 477, 478) relating to the same fictional case: The community of Ourville which is considering some options for creating parks to enhance the quality of life of local residents. The amounts are expressed in simple numbers – e.g., $100 – which you can assume to be referring to realistic amounts – e.g., hundreds of thousands.

(a) As a part of its considerations about the park project, Ourville needs to think about the opportunity costs associated with each tract of land being considered for the park. What is an opportunity cost? You are nominated to explain (BRIEFLY) in terms the public will understand what we mean by opportunity cost:

(b) While discussing the value of the park options to residents the term "willingness to pay" comes up. Explain (BRIEFLY) to the public what this means.


Q205. Suppose the agents in a population have four behaviors - W, X, Y, Z - and that each behavior is either present or absent. When two agents meet they may have all the same behaviors, none of the same behaviors, or 1 or 2 behaviors in common. Suppose the probability of interaction is proportional to their similarity. IF they do interact, they flip a coin and who ever wins gets imitated by the other agent.

Use the two random number tables below (the left table for doing a Monte Carlo simulation of whether interaction occurs and the left table to determine which agent is the leader and which is the follower) to work out the next state n the grid below, determine the probability of interaction between each pair of neighbors (assume no diagonal interaction for now)

69 72 43 97 87 0 0 0 1 1
37 86 35 23 41 1 1 0 0 1
88 36 94 60 60 1 1 1 0 0
84 26 3 87 12 0 0 1 1 0
8 10 56 52 29 1 1 1 0 0
26 5 30 15 58 0 1 1 1 1
95 3 95 18 69 0 0 1 0 0
71 42 55 64 21 0 0 1 1 0
68 75 90 19 64 0 0 1 1 0
75 13 77 1 89 0 0 0 0 0
A
1110
B
1010
C
0010
D
1001
E
0000
F
1111
G
1001
H
1011
I
1000
J
1000
K
1110
L
0000
M
0010
N
1100
O
0100
P
0111

Q125. Write an equation for the line passing through the points (3,2) and (0,5).


Q221. For each of the problems described below, say whether it is best thought of as an analog to diet, transport, activity, or assignment as outlined above.

  1. S&Z problem #1 Incinerators DIET TRANSPORT ACTIVITY ASSIGNMENT
  2. S&Z problem #2 Police Shifts DIET TRANSPORT ACTIVITY ASSIGNMENT
  3. S&Z problem #3 Hospitals and disasters DIET TRANSPORT ACTIVITY ASSIGNMENT
  4. S&Z problem #4 Electricity generation and pollution DIET TRANSPORT ACTIVITY ASSIGNMENT
  5. S&Z text example – transit maintenance DIET TRANSPORT ACTIVITY ASSIGNMENT

Q203. Group these examples of coordination games and explain.

  1. do we store the ketchup in the fridge or in the cabinet?
  2. smokers should marry smokers and non-smokers should marry non-smokers
  3. cat people and dog people and dating
  4. people's sense of what constitutes rudeness
  5. infidelity is never OK, infidelity is OK in certain circumstances
  6. Erring on the side of caution; nothing ventured, nothing gained
  7. Every woman for herself; Let's work as a team.

Q114. A totalitarian country that prohibits migration has a birth rate b and a death rate d. How does the population change from one year to the next?

We can interpret "birth rate" or "death rate" in two ways — as a rate, for example, deaths per 100 people — or as an absolute number, for example, 5 people per year. In general, we will mean the former.

Let $P_{i}$ be the population in year i. Write an expression for the population in year i+1. If the population in a given year is 100 and birth rate, b, is 5% and the death rate, d, is 6%, write out the population for the next 5 years.


Q177. Which of the cumulative frequency distributions below corresponds to this frequency distribution

histogram02.gif
A. cumfreq01.gif B. cumfreq02.gif C. cumfreq03.gif
D. cumfreq04.gif E. cumfreq05.gif

Q107. Our neighborhood association has a ten member board. Each year it plans to add four members. Write the difference equations that describe the size of the board (S) each year.


Q25. Use NodeXL to reproduce the organizational chart below. Take note of the appearance of the network with various layout options. Try changing the type to "directed" in the chart panel of the NodeXL ribbon. What do you say about organizational charts as networks from examining the different layouts?

orgchart01.gif
President VP1
President VP2
VP1 Mgr1
VP1 Mgr2
VP2 Staff1
Mgr2 Staff2
Mgr2 Staff3
Mgr2 Staff4

Q319. What does the indicatrix tell us about the Mollweide projection? Specifically, what do the red and black "12 o'clock" and "3 o'clock" lines mean?

mollweide_w_indicatrix.png

Q385. Explain the following words, terms, phrases found in Engels' "The Origin of the State" excerpt.

gentile constitution (99.3):
plebs (99.4):
mark constitution (99.5)
bondsmen (101.2)
joint-stock company (101.5)
universal suffrage (102.1)
Bonapartism (101.3)
proletariat (101.3)
Prussian Junkers (101.4)


Q50. What kind of network data might emerge from: tweets, retweets, hashtags? Assume we have powerful access to the Twitter stream (meaning we can grab all the tweets in a given time frame, all the tweets by a set of users, all the tweets that mention a hashtag or a user, etc. And assume we have access to the API and so can take a user name and get a list of who she follows or who follows her.

Describe five different networks we might construct from this data.


Q104. House gets another case. There's this funny rash. We won't say where it appears, but it's a funny rash. In 1% of the cases, it means something really, really bad — anxoreisis. Fortunately, there's a test. Unfortunately, it's not a perfect test. Fortunately, it's a pretty good test. Unfortunately, it is wrong 2% of the time. Work it out.


Q49. Convert this 2-mode data into 1-mode data

Flavor Who Likes It
Chocolate Abe, Bertha, Cyndra, Dalia
Vanilla Abe, Cyndra, Eve, Faisel, Gerd
Strawberry Bertha, Cyndra, Hettie, Iolantha
Pistachio Cyndra, Dalia, Gerd, Hettie, Iolantha

Q300. You have been hired as a consultant to estimate the effects of a new criminal offender registry law that prohibits individuals on the registry from living within 1000 meters of a school. You are asked to

  • Make a map showing all areas that are off-limits to registered offenders
  • Calculate about how much of the city's rental market is off-limits to registered offenders based on this law.

You have

  • a point layer with school locations
  • a street layer
  • a census blockgroup layer with information on number of rental units (or at least renter occupied units as of the last census)

Q188. "Women's issues" have been talked about a lot in the 2012 presidential campaigns. One issue has been the hiring of women in leadership positions in society. Draw a causal loop diagram to represent the following relationships.

The more "gender bias" the fewer qualified women there will be.
More qualified women means more women in positions of power.
The more women in power, the less "gender bias" in society.

Assuming we start with social bias and not many women in positions of power, how is this system likely to behave?

Now let's modify things a bit. Let's suppose we solve the "supply" problem and break the link between bias and the number of qualified women and that the latter grows significantly. We change our model slightly:

Societal bias produces social blindness to existence of qualified women.
This social blindness means fewer women will be in the pool that is considered for positions of power.
The fewer women in the pool, the fewer end up in positions of power.
And, as before, the more (fewer) women in power, the less (more) "gender bias" in society.

Draw this causal model.

Now let's add another causal relation: the fewer women in positions of power, the more NGOs emerge to promote women's participation in government, etc. The NGOs hit on a strategy called that the men in power call "binders of women" — whereby they do the legwork needed to show the men the qualified women that their bias made them blind to.

Add the NGOs and the binders to our causal model. Identify a balancing loop that might portend the achievement of improved gender diversity in positions of power.


Q44. Media analysis of SOPA wars.


Q252. Consider this network in which green agents are cooperators and violet are defectors and the cost of cooperating is 2 while the benefit of being cooperated with is 5. Where is the equilibrium is people's behavior changes based on their network experiences?

network-reciprocity-01.png

Q414. Explain why the study of the "emergence of cooperation" might be especially relevant in international relations. How does this observation suggest a fundamental limit to the Hobbesian model?


Q314. Show how to set snapping options to make vertex matching while drawing polygons by hand easier.


Q232. Durkheim lived in an age when the role and existence of “god” as ultimate source of right and rule and order was under question. Rather than choose between “the human” and “the divine” Durkheim stared religion in the face, so to speak, and showed how what we think of as divine/sacred is in fact human (social). How do the following passages convey Durkheim’s theory of the special power of social norms and his idea about society as god and the notion that the individual, with norms and values of society internalized, can be a source of social order?

Durkheim, “Collective Representations” from Elementary Forms

“An individual or collective subject is said to inspire respect when the representation that expresses it in consciousness has such power that it calls forth or inhibits conduct automatically, irrespective of any utilitarian calculation of helpful or harmful results” (50.8).

“The ways of acting to which society is strongly enough attached to impose them on its members are for that reason marked with a distinguishing sign that calls forth respect” (51.1).

“Because social pressure makes itself felt through mental channels, it was bound to give men the idea that outside him there are one or several powers, moral yet mighty, to which he was subject” (52.1).

“In the midst of an assembly that becomes worked up, we become capable of feelings and conduct of which we are incapable when left to our individual resources” (52.5).


0005.The community is also trying to create a neighborhood resident association. Ten members are recruited each month through posters put up in the community. In addition, each member typically recruits 1 new member every five months (that is, about 0.2 new members per member per month). And finally, attrition seems to run at about 40% per month.

  • What are the "rates"? What are the "amounts"?
  • Write the difference equation in general form (Pn+1=aPn + b)
  • Label the diagram below as fully as you can.
pn%2B1vspn.gif
  • What is the equilibrium value? Is it a stable or unstable equilibrium? How can you tell?
  • Label this chart as fully as possible and then explain what it shows.
pnvst.gif

Q145. Wordsmith:

There are different types of secrets, in this situation the secret is a dark secret which has to be kept from the audience forever. “These consist of facts about a team which it knows and conceals and which are incompatible with the image of self that the team attempts to maintain before its audience” (Goffman, 1959, p. 141).


Q195. Complete or paraphrase the passage that begins "It is not from the beneficence of the baker…." Who said it? In what context? What does it mean?


Q231. A transport company has two types of trucks, Type A and Type B. Type A has a refrigerated capacity of 20 m3 and a non-refrigerated capacity of 40 m3 while Type B has the same overall volume with equal sections for refrigerated and non-refrigerated stock. A grocer needs to hire trucks for the transport of 3,000 m3 of refrigerated stock and 4 000 m3 of non-refrigerated stock. The cost per kilometer of a Type A is $30, and $40 for Type B. How many trucks of each type should the grocer rent to achieve the minimum total cost?

Alternatively

A school district has two types of lower division schools, type A and type B. Type A school buildings have capacity for 200 little kids and 400 big kids. Type B buildings have capacity for 300 little kids and 300 big kids. Next year the district expects enrollments of 3000 little kids and 4000 big kids. Type A buildings cost 30,000 per year to maintain while type B buildings cost 40,000. What mix of school buildings will allow the district to handle the expected enrollment at the lowest maintenance cost? (From VITutor)


Q292. Name these California counties.

CACountiesSouth.png

Q178. Which of the cumulative frequency distributions below corresponds to this frequency distribution

histogram03.gif
A. cumfreq01.gif B. cumfreq02.gif C. cumfreq03.gif
D. cumfreq04.gif E. cumfreq05.gif

Q419. What does Hayek mean by "teleological shorthand"?

The use of “purposive" in this sense as a sort of ‘teleological shorthand’, as it has been called by biologists, is unobjectionable so long as we do not imply an awareness of purpose on the part of the elements, but mean merely that the elements have acquired regularities of conduct conducive to the maintenance of the order — presumably because those who did act in certain ways had within the resulting order a better chance of survival than those who did not." (143.9)


Q302. What is the significance of this map? What does it show? Who made it? When was it made?

snowsmap.png

Q131. Draw a causal loop diagram that illustrates the process of feeling hungry, eating, becoming satisfied, stopping, getting hungry again.


Q387. Explain the following words/terms as used in Weber's excerpt on types of legitimate domination:

wertrationale (103.6)
material interests (103.6)
charismatic (104.4)
abstract rules (105.2)
impersonal order (105.3)
rationally delimited jurisdiction (105.5)
[absence of] "appropriation of his official position by the incumbent" (106.4)
office (106.7)
plebiscite (106.9)
administrative staff (107.2)
monocracy (107.4)
"principle of appointment" (108.5)
"red tape" (109.7)
dilettantism (109.8)
levelling (111.4)
sine ira et studio (111.5) - See Wikipedia
formalism (111.8)
utilitarian expediency (112.7)
patrimonial (113.4) - See Wikipedia
prebendal (114.6)
formal system of rules (116.7)
routinization of charisma (118.7)


Q397. Describe the "resistance culture" of the lads at school.


Q249. Translate each of the flow charts below into everyday English.


Q415. Explain what we mean by "norm of reciprocity" and how it is relevant to the course.


Q226. "You have $12,000 to invest, and three different funds from which to choose. The municipal bond fund has a 7% return, the local bank's CDs have an 8% return, and the high-risk account has an expected (hoped-for) 12% return. To minimize risk, you decide not to invest any more than $2,000 in the high-risk account. For tax reasons, you need to invest at least three times as much in the municipal bonds as in the bank CDs. Assuming the year-end yields are as expected, what are the optimal investment amounts?" (From PurpleMath.com)


Q100. How much would you be willing to pay for a forecast that would resolve the contingency in problem 95?


Q434. On p241 Durkheim talks about the anomy (disruption) caused by economic disaster (a person losing everything, say, or sudden drop in a set of people's economic circumstances as when a local industry closes and everyone loses jobs) OR when sudden wealth comes (again, to an individual or to a community or group). Explain what Durkheim sees happening and how it's the same process in both situations.


Q69. Define "coordination" and give five examples of coordination problems that you dealt with today.


Q403. In the excerpt from "The Origin of the State," Engels discusses the role of universal suffrage in the contemporary state. What role does he see the proletariat playing initially in this context? What trajectory does he suggest as the history unfolds?


Q396. Discuss the role of the 'ear'oles in the oppositional ideology of the "lads." Why and in what ways are they important in the lads' concept of self?


Q337. In "Genesis and Development of a Scientific Fact" Ludwik Fleck starts out with the bold statement that "cognition is the most socially-conditioned activity…." Why is this a bold statement? What conventional assumption is he contradicting at the outset?


Q139. Wordsmith the following passage from the first paragraph of a paper about Erving Goffman's Presentation of Self in Everyday Life.

In Presentation of Self, Erving Goffman states that a front is "that part of the individual's performance which regularly functions in a general and fixed fashion to define the situation for those who observe the performance" (p.22). In other words, you need to have an image of how you want people to see you at a certain point in time.


Q416. Explain what we mean by distinguishing a one-shot PD from an iterated PD and why this is important.


Q229. Bob builds tool sheds. He uses 10 sheets of dry wall and 15 studs for a small shed and 15 sheets of dry wall and 45 studs for a large shed. He has available 60 sheets of dry wall and 135 studs. If Bob makes $390 profit on a small shed and $520 on a large shed, how many of each type of building should Bob build to maximize his profit? (From solution here)


Q153. A criminologist and an activist decide to collaborate on a project designed to reduce prison population. In the spirit of starting simple, they identify 4 states in which people can find themselves: never imprisoned; incarcerated; on parole; post-parole. The period of time in their analysis will be one year. Suppose 70% of the population has never been incarcerated. Each year 2% of these people are imprisoned. Of those currently incarcerated, 20% are released each year onto parole. Average parole is 5 years so that a person on parole has a 20% chance of finishing parole. Those on parole have a 10% chance of finding themselves back in prison in any given year. Individuals who are post parole have a 4% chance of returning to prison in any given year. Draw a state diagram and matrix representing this information.


Q179. Which of the cumulative frequency distributions below corresponds to this frequency distribution

histogram04.gif
A. cumfreq01.gif B. cumfreq02.gif C. cumfreq03.gif
D. cumfreq04.gif E. cumfreq05.gif

Q32. In addition to replicating the material in the text, we'll have a "and now try it with this" exercise. Self test at end. Can I : enter vertices and display graph? select an edge ? move the graph plane around? switch graph type between directed and undirected? change data and update graph? move vertices around "manually"? set vertex colors and sizes? use the autofill tool? add vertex labels? add tool tips? save a layout? save a data file?


0007. Blank


Q78. Sketch a flow chart that represents the following writing protocol: (1) Edit your essay until it is perfect. (2) While the essay still needs work, edit your essay.


Q233. Hobbes sees social order as impossible without hierarchy. Address both the question of coordination and cooperation (to see the cooperation here, we might think about Adam Smith’s notion of bartering as a means by which two actors can both get what they want) as you explain how Hobbes gets from his assumptions about human nature to the need for a “Leviathan” if human-kind is to achieve social order.

Hobbes, from "Leviathan"

“So that in the first place I put for a general inclination of all mankind a perpetual and restless desire of power after power, that ceaseth only in death. And the cause of this is not always that a man hopes for a more intensive delight than he has already attained to, or that he cannot be content with a moderate power; but because he cannot assure the power and means to live well which he hath present, without the acquisition of more” (89).

“Hereby it is manifest that, during the time men live without a common power to keep them all in awe, they are in that condition which is called war, and such a war as is of every man against every man” (93).

“In such condition there is no place for industry, because the fruit thereof is uncertain, and consequently no culture of the earth, no navigation nor use of the commodities that may be imported by sea, no commodious building, no instruments of moving and removing such things as require much force, no knowledge of the face of the earth; no account of time, no arts, no letters, no society, and, which is worst of all, continual fear and danger of violent death, and the life of man solitary, poor, nasty, brutish, and short” (93-4).

“If a covenant be made wherein neither of the parties perform presently but trust one another, in the condition of mere nature, which is a condition of war of every man against every man, upon any reasonable suspicion, it is void; but, if there be a common power set over them both with right and force sufficient to compel performance, it is not void” (97).


Q213. Explicate and comment:

What the general argument against 'interference' thus amounts to is that, although we can endeavor to improve a spontaneous order by revising the general rules on which it rests, and can supplement its results by the efforts of various organizations, we cannot improve the results by specific commands that deprive its members of the possibility of using their knowledge for their purposes (Hayek 1976:153.1).


16. In some countries (and in some parts of this country) bus queues are more orderly and more common than in others. In other words, in some places people actually form a nice neat line starting at the spot where the bus will pull up so that people can board in exactly the order they arrived at the stop. What’s a common phrase for the norm used in such cases? Under what kinds of conditions would you expect strict queuing vs. more nonchalant “standing around”? Can you express the plusses and minuses in terms of deadweight loss and transaction costs?


Q242. Draw a flowchart that represents the following protocol for enjoying a Saturday afternoon.

If it is sunny, go to the beach. If it is not sunny go to the movies.
If you go to the beach, if you are by yourself, take an umbrella and a good book. If you are with friends, take a bottle of wine and some nice cheese.
If you go to the movies alone, buy a monster popcorn and sit right up front. If you go with friends, be more restrained with the snacks and sit midway back.
Have a nice dinner afterwards.


Q430. At 239.4 Durkheim writes, "As a matter of fact, at every moment of history there is a dim perception, in the moral consciousness of societies, of the respective value of different social services [he means jobs, occupations, etc. not social work], the relative reward due to each, and the consequent degree of comfort appropriate on the average to workers in each occupation." Translate this into everyday English.


Q182. Which threshold frequency distribution corresponds to the following description:

The community has a few people who will join no matter what, a few more who will join if some others have joined, still more who will join if a goodly number are on board and so on all the way up to a hesitant few but even they will join if it appears everyone else has.

A. histogram01.gif B. histogram02.gif C. histogram03.gif
D. histogram04.gif E. histogram05.gif

Q83. Weimer & Vining (1989) characterize policy problems in terms of market failure and government failure. Any given problem, they suggest, can be placed in one of four categories: (1) market AND government failure; (2) government works (policy corrects for market failure); (3) market works; (4) government failure to correct for market failure. Their suggested strategy is to start by asking whether there is a market failure and then whether there is government failure. Using the two conditionals, "Is there evidence of market failure?" and "Is there evidence of government failure?" construct a flowchart that would permit you to classify any given situation into one of the four aforementioned categories.


Q138. Suggest rewrite of the following text:

For example, Goffman uses front to distinguish and label the different parts of front as he sets a scene that consist of three components by using setting, appearance, and manner. In which an actor has the ability to choose his stage and props, as well as the costume he would wear in front of his audience (p.22-24).


Q297. With reference to the figures below, describe what the California State Plane System is.

cal_st_plane.pngca_state_plane_CRS_list.png

Q31. Demonstrate basic familiarity with email, wikis, Twitter, Facebook, newsgroups, listserves.


Q465. A used car costs 10,000. A comparable new car costs 20,000. Owners of new cars can expect to pay nothing per year in maintenance for ten years. Owners of used cars pay $1000 per year in maintenance. How do the costs compare over ten years? Assume a 7% discount rate.


Q325. Have a look at the paper shown below about immunization in Uganda. Look especially at the causal loop diagrams on pages 102(146) and 103(147). Explain what is going on in each of the labeled/shaded loops. In some cases, there might be a sign missing. Based on your reading of the diagrams, supply these and explain.

R1:

B1:

B2:

immunization01.png

Q79. Use stepwise refinement to create a flow chart for this set of instructions: Do A and then B. If C, then while E do F and after that do G, otherwise do H. Do I.


Q257. (a) Explain the equations for common pool resource problems as discussed in Lecture 17.4: "Collective Action and Common Pool Resource Problems":

$x_j$ : amount consumed by person j

$X$ : total consumed

Amount available next period: $C_{T+1} = (C_T - X)^2$

(b) Propose values of these variables that would result in a steady state equilibrium value of the resource.


20. Explain what is meant by "social control as a dependent variable."


Q173. Consider this data on the thresholds in a population. Draw a frequency histogram and cumulative frequency diagram. If news reports suggest participation will be at 20 people, how many people's threshold is met or exceeded? How about if the number is 70?

p0173-table-a.gif

Q358. Demonstrate your understanding of the Ludwik Fleck excerpt and its connection to ideas about how the nature of the social individual is a "source" of social order by explaining this diagram. Use examples to illustrate your ideas.

sharedmeaningToOrderFleck.png

Q127. Consider the singles bar scene. Develop a model along the lines of the market for lemons (Wikipedia), that would suggest that information asymmetries could possibly kill the scene. What institutional interventions prevent this from happening?.


Q76. Sketch a flowchart that represents this bit of logic: If I have anything that is due tomorrow then if I am acing the class already and if I have some money I’ll go out drinking by myself (since all my friends will be busy), but if I don’t have any money I’ll stay home and watch reruns on cable. If, on the other hand, I’m not acing this class, I’ll stay home and study. If I don’t have anything due tomorrow, then if I have some money I’ll see if some friends are around and if so I’ll party with them. Otherwise, I’ll drink alone. If I don’ t have any money I’ll just stay home and watch reruns on cable.


Q33. Practice Gephi exercises.

djjrfb2009.jpg
djrFB2012.gif

Q236. In a prisoner’s dilemma game, the rational thing for both players is to defect. This makes mutual defection an equilibrium, though it is not a preferred one (the collective would be better off with another outcome). In other words, in a single game of prisoner’s dilemma, cooperation is “impossible.” But cooperation does happen in the world.

Demonstrate your understanding of Axelrod's ideas by describing the mechanism and conditions under which this can happen without assuming anything “social” about the agents.

axelrod-mechanism-01.gif

Explain how this works and how it adds to or modifies Smith’s and Hayek’s story about how markets can be a source of social order.


Q175. Consider this data on the thresholds in a population. Draw a frequency histogram and cumulative frequency diagram. Plot the cumulative distribution on a chart with a 45 degree line.

p0175-table-a.gif

Q346. Cohen and Vandello describe a world that may not be politically or morally attractive to you. And yet we read it in a section of the course where we are saying that collective beliefs can be a source of coordination and social order. How does this article illustrate the theoretical points being made by Marx, Durkheim, Mead, and Fleck, indeed of the entire section of the course, that shared meanings can produce order?


Q110. Each year the feral cat population grows by 3%. Let Cn be the number of cats n years from now. Assume there are presently 350. Suppose that each year we catch and euthanize or place in homes 20 cats. Write the equations for this situation.


Q150. Consider this passage and draft explication2. Work through it and suggest how you might improve it.

Text Explication
In "The Production of Consciousness," Marx (1845-1846) writes,“Men can be distinguished from the animals by consciousness, by religion, or by whatever one wants. They begin to distinguish themselves from the animals as soon as they begin to produce their means of life, a step which is determined by their physical organisation. In producing their means of life they indirectly produce their material life itself” (46). In other words, Marx is saying that the difference between a human being and an animal is that human beings have consciousness and work and contribute to production that allow them to produce their means of life; therefore, work is essential to humans’ interactions.

Q363. Demonstrate your understanding of Weber's typology of social action in the context of this course by explaining this diagram.

weber-types-of-action-01.png

Q338. "As an entity [a thought collective] is even more stable and consistent than the so-called individual, who always consists of contradictory drives" (57.8). Explain what Fleck means.


Q101. If the farmer plants early and the spring is warm, she can get a 20% increase in her harvest. But if she plants early and there's a late frost she can lose 50% of her harvest. Historically, these late frosts happen one year in four (25% of the time). Use a decision tree to determine how much she would be willing to invest in a perfect forecast.


Q282. Explain these acronyms: BG, CT, XML, CRAP


Q254. Just based on reasoning, explain the relation among relatedness, cost of cooperation, and benefit of cooperation in kin selection as a mechanism for achieving cooperation in the face of prisoner's dilemma scenarios.


Q186. Our neighborhood Obama for America committee is an active one. It's so active that it wears people out. Over the course of the campaign it tends to recruit 4 new people every week but it also loses about 10% of its membership due to fatigue each week. The committee began in June with 6 members. Write the difference equations that describe the size of the committee (S) each week. What's the long term prognosis?


Q95. You never know what the weather is going to be around here. Somedays you need a sweater and some days you need sunglasses. The smart person, they say, always brings both. But suppose there is a definite hassle involved in bringing either (e.g., you ride a bike and space is tight). Sketch a decision tree that takes into account a cost to bringing either and a cost to not having either when you need them and the possibility that on a given day you might need one, the other, or both. Use plausible numbers of your own choice.


Q158. Suppose the following statements are true about the local housing market.

  1. On a month to month basis, 90% of mortgage payments are on time, 10% are late or missed.
  2. Of all the late/missed payments, 25% are back on track the following month. 65% are late again. 10% go into default.
  3. Of all mortgages in default in a given month, 20% have a work-out and return to good standing. 70% remain in default and 10% move into foreclosure.
  4. Of all houses in foreclosure each month, the banks manage to get 20% back on the market and resold.

Draw the transition diagram and write out the transition matrix.


Q38. Homophily Problems


Q329. Create for yourself a one page cheat-sheet/course summary illustration that captures what you have learned/want to take away from the course. Be prepared to show it at oral exam and explain it to instructor as if he were a fellow student who has not taken this course. This can take any form at all within the constraints of being no more than one sheet of paper. Just for fun, here are some examples from other courses: Social Theory, GIS, Social Control. Focus, of course, on content, not artistic flair.


Q109. Each year the feral cat population grows by 3%. Let Cn be the number of cats n years from now. Assume there are presently 350. Write a difference equation that describes the cat population from year to year.


Q216. Explicate and comment:

But man has almost constant occasion for the help of his brethern, and it is in vain for him to expect it from their benevolence only. He will be more likley to prevail if he can interest their self-love in his favor, and show them that it is for their own advantage to do for him what he requires of them. Whoever offers to another a bargain of any kind, proposes to do this. Give me that which I want, and you shall have this which you want, is the meaning of every such offer; and it is in this manner that we obtain from one another the far greater part of those offices which we stand in need of. It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own interest. We address ourselves, not to their humanity but to their self-love, and never talk to them of our own necessities but of their advantages (Smith 1776: 172.5).


Q260. Explain how "group selection" can give rise to cooperative behavior in human society.


Q146. Tweak:

Although there are many components to his theory of performativity, in this essay I will focus on the use of “fronts” and “dramatic realization” in face-to-face interactions – two concepts from his first chapter (Goffman 22, 30).


Q171. A common phrase to describe processes in which people engage in imitative behavior is "bandwagon effect." Explain the appropriateness of this metaphor.


Q441. Explain the scientific logic behind Durkheim's suggestion that the three propositions on suicide varying with integration in religious, domestic, and political society lead to the suggestion that social integration is the property behind the variation in suicide rates.


Q335. Consider Marx on the production of consciousness. How important does the kind of work seem to be as over against the kinds interaction among people who do the same kind of work for Marx? Compare, perhaps, Uber drivers and fast food workers. Would Marx expect less or a different kind of shared consciousness among the one or the other?


Q163. Work through this passage by Durkheim:

…it is with the people of his clan that he has most in common, and it is the influence of this group that he feels most immediately, and so it is also this influence, more than any other, that was bound to find expression in religious symbols” (55).

Can you make any connections to Mead's generalized other? Or the generic idea of having some of our mental content being social?


Q369. A storyboard is a technique for graphically organizing the telling of a story. Think about how you would explain Fleck's theory of thought communities as a theory of how the human individual is a vehicle for the generation of social order. Imagine how you would represent the theory visually and how you would explain it textually.

storyboard.png

Q96. A college enrolls two types of students. Full-pay students pay $40K tuition and half-pay students pay $20K. At present the school spends $1 million per year to recruit 200 students about 75% of whom are half-pay and 25% full-pay. A consultant submits a proposal to shift resources around and use GIS to target recruitment at zip codes that are more likely to yield full-pay students. She says there is a 75% chance that the results will be a slightly smaller class (190) but one with 40% full-pay and 60% half-pay. Unfortunately there is also a risk things won't turn out so well. There's a 25% chance that enrollment will drop to 170 and only 30% will be full pay. Use a decision tree to advise the college as to its best course of action.


Q185. Sketch a causal loop diagram for these two systems (be sure to label each link and the overall loop). Comment on the long term equilibrium of this system.

  • Being pro candidate X…
    1. …makes you give money…
    2. …makes the campaign send you emails…
    3. …makes you want to go to a rally…
    4. …makes pro candidate X…
  • Being pro candidate X…
    1. …makes you give money…
    2. …makes the campaign send you emails…
    3. …makes you get fed up with the campaign…
    4. …makes you a little sour on candidate X…
  • Not hearing much from the campaign…
    1. …makes you miss your candidate
    2. …makes you feel more pro candidate X

Q468. Describe how to set up the following problem. There are many inefficient and dirty older cars still in use. Future generations are harmed by the wasted fuel and added pollution these cars represent. A proposal is in the works to pay people a bonus to trade them in. How should we think about this? In your preliminary thinking, ignore any economic stimulus effects. You can bring that in later if you wish.


Q258. Insofar as particulars matter, what's the difference between cows, lobsters, and whether you live up stream or downstream?


Q129. Draw a stock and flow diagram for filling up a bathtub for a baby (or yourself!). You have a faucet that you can turn more towards hot or toward cold. Be sure to show the flows, the stocks, the sources of information, the "valves," and the rules that govern the valves in this system.


Q379. "Marx and Engels suggest that the disadvantaged are duped by the institutions and ideology of the ruling class" (Hechter and Horne, 85). Elaborate.


Q71. Consider this little bit of logic that describes a tourist's thinking process (taken from the title of a 1970s movie): “if it’s Tuesday, this must be Belgium. Otherwise, I have no idea where we are.” Sketch a flowchart that represents this flow of thought.


Q136. Write out the difference equation that represents the following scenario and the first five terms of the corresponding sequence given the stated starting value.

  1. Membership in a club goes up by 4 people each year. At year one it has 21 members.
  2. A community's population increases by 4% each year. At year one it is 350.
  3. A swimming pool, currently containing 100,000 gallons of water, is leaking at the rate of 2% per day but is being filled at the rate of 1,000 gallons per day.
  4. A retirement account which stands at $120,000 earns 3% interest annually. The owner needs to withdraw $1500 per month to pay for eldercare.

For each of these, graph Pn vs. time.

For each of these, graph Pn+1 vs. Pn


Q42. Data Collection Problem

  • Seeing two mode networks (when do we encounter these in the reading?)
  • Grab some data from an online source.
  • Use NodeXL to grab some automatically.
  • Class exercise on CSS.

Q425. What research questions did the "live and let live" phenomenon from WWI raise for Robert Axelrod?


Q36. Consider the graph matrix below

A B C D E
A - 0 1 0 1
B 0 - 0 1 1
C 0 1 - 1 1
D 0 0 1 - 0
E 0 1 1 1 -
  1. We use $n$ for the number of vertices. What is $n$ here?
  2. What is $\sum _{ i=1 }^{ n }{ { A }_{ i4 } }$?
  3. What is $\sum _{ j=1 }^{ n }{ { A }_{ 3j } }$?
(2)
\begin{align} \sum _{ i=1 }^{ n }{ { A }_{ i4 } } \end{align}

Q222. Write out the sample problems on pp 190-2 with explanatory solutions.


Q340. Explain sociological wholism (vs. methodological reductionism) and sociological realism (vs. nominalism)


Q315. Identify and describe. What does it show? Who made it? When was it made?

minard-napoleon.png

Q322. Say what's wrong with these flow charts and redraw them correctly.

flowchart-bad-01a.png flowchart-bad-02a.png flowchart-bad-03a.png

Q147. Identify and fix problems of diction in these examples.


Q285. Name a few suppliers of map tiles.


Q301. Explain what we mean by "taxi-cab distance."


Q417. In the context of game theory/prisoner's dilemma, what does "words are cheap" mean?


Q160. Comment on and improve upon the following text explication

Text Explication
In ‘Genesis and the Development of a Scientific Fact’, Fleck refers to language as a key form of interaction. He writes, “Thoughts pass from one individual to another, each time a little transformed, for each individual can attach to them somewhat different associations” (55). That is, thoughts that are submitted through language can inspire new and different meanings once shared through spoken word.

Q478. This is one of a series of problems (469, 470, 471, 472, 473, 474, 475, 476, 477) relating to the same fictional case: The community of Ourville which is considering some options for creating parks to enhance the quality of life of local residents. The amounts are expressed in simple numbers – e.g., $100 – which you can assume to be referring to realistic amounts – e.g., hundreds of thousands.

In comparing options for the park projects in Ourville, staff have noted that equipment choices will have an impact on maintenance costs down the line. Two swing sets, in particular, are being considered. One is very expensive up front, but has a very favorable maintenance outlook. The other is less expensive, but might need repairs and even to be replaced during the expected lifetime of the sturdier set. Data is below (based on a 7% discount rate). We assume annual community benefits from using the park to be 2000 (except in the year where the cheaper swing set would have to be replaced). The town budget could afford either project, but not both. What do you recommend and why? Explain to a public audience what is going on here.

q0478-cba-01.jpg

Q28. Consider the three networks in the figure below. For each one, calculate the ratio of actual number of edges to the most maximum number of edges possible (assuming the graphs are simple).

sampleNetworks01.gif

Q280. Explain these acronyms: NAD83, NAD27, OSGB


Q102. Kids these days! Of those who get into trouble, it turns out, about 30% are "real trouble-makers" who need some help. The other 70% are normal adolescents who will age out of their trouble-making under normal care. A social worker friend introduces you to a test that you can give to kids who are referred to you to determine which category they are in. Research has suggested the test is 75% accurate. Use tree flipping to describe what to make of the test's results.


Q108. You are a small non-profit. Your sole funder says that each year it will double what you have as your balance at the end of the year. Each year you project spending 20,000 for programs. Ignore interest. Write difference equations describing your balance (B).

What special situations can you imagine we might get into? What, for example, happens if B0=$32,000? What happens if it is 50,000? 40,000?


Q295. Locate these prominent California geographic features:

CA-nine-features.png
  • Cascade Mountains
  • Coastal Mountains
  • Colorado River
  • Kalamath Mountains
  • Mojave Desert
  • Sacramento River
  • Sacramento Valley
  • San Joaquin Valley
  • San Joaquin River
  • Sierra Nevada Mountains

Q328. Have a look at this recent release from Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The data separates those without a job into unemployed but "in the labor force" and "marginally attached to the labor force" and a subset of these called "discouraged" - the former would like to work but have not looked in the last four weeks and so are not counted as unemployed. The latter are not actively looking for work having given up on the idea that its possible to find. These groups are not included in the denominator when the unemployment rate is calculated. The simple version of the unemployment rate is, then,

(3)
\begin{align} UR = \frac {Unemployed} {Employed + Unemployed} \end{align}

Some recent op-eds have counseled caution about optimism that the overall unemployment rate has been going down because it might reflect growth in the number of people no longer looking for work. We'll think about that with a Markov model. We'll simplify the states a worker can be in:

  • employed (E)
  • short term unemployed - 14 weeks or less (US)
  • long term unemployed - over 14 weeks (LS)
  • Marginally attached to the labor force - no longer looking for a job (MALF)

Let's construct a simplified Markov model of unemployment based on transition rates shown here:

markov_transition_table.png

If the unemployment rate is calculated as the ratio of those who are short term unemployed (US) plus those who are long term unemployed (UL) to the total labor force (E + US + UL), how would things evolve over the next twelve months if the starting numbers are these:

markov_starting_point.png

What will the unemployment rate be? Even if it is agreed that getting unemployment to near 6% is a policy goal, are there reasons the results might not be a cause for celebration?

Create a chart showing changes over the next 12 months. Suggestion: plot total employment (E) on secondary axis since it's such a large number. In the alternative, put it on a separate chart.

Excel worksheet here


Q429. Briefly explain Freud's theory of where guilt comes from.


Q208. Explicate and comment:

One of our main contentions will be that very complex orders, comprising more particular facts than any brain could ascertain or manipulate, can be brought about only through forces inducing the formation of spontaneous orders (Hayek 1976: 143.5).


Q73. Sketch a flowchart that represents this bit of logic: “if cell E$3 is greater than cell G$12 then value is G$12; otherwise, value is G$12-E$3.”


Q190. An eager campaign volunteer wants to think rationally about where to put her time. She does her research about phone-banking and canvassing and discovers the following.

A full shift (calling hundreds!) at phone banking has a 10% chance of producing 20 votes and a 60% chance of producing 2 votes, 10% chance of producing no votes and a 20% chance of losing 2 votes. Canvassing, by comparison, has a 20% chance of producing 8 votes, 30% chance of producing 4 votes, and a 50% chance of producing no votes. Other things being equal, which would be a better use of her time?


Q220. What is the objective function in each of the following situations?

  1. What is the largest volume box I can make by folding a piece of cardboard that is A inches by B inches?
  2. Pancakes cost $1 each, eggs are 1.50, and blintzes are 2. Pancakes have 200 calories, eggs 125 and blintzes 450. What combination gives me the most calories for 5 dollars?
  3. What's the cheapest 1000 calorie daily diet?
  4. I have information on the level of AOD demand reduction we can expect from public awareness campaigns, DARE visits to public schools, increased treatment slots, and increases in after care. I know the cost of each type program and I have a limited budget. What mix of programs should I institute to have the biggest effect on demand?

Q103. Suppose we are running a program to which we want to accept only individuals in the top 25% of the population (on some measurable trait). Unfortunately, our test for measuring the trait is only 80% accurate. Draw event tree and flip to show what kind of faith we can have in the test results. Which test result appears more worthy of taking at face value? Which group would you be inclined to develop a second test for?


Q438. Consult the text at 243.9ff : "Reality seems valueless by comparison with the dreams of fevered imaginations; reality is therefore abandoned, but so is possibility abandoned when it in turn becomes reality. A thirst arises for novelties…." Use Durkheim to say something about advertising - for products, for body images, etc.


Q80. If A: until B do C and then, do D if E, otherwise do F while G. Otherwise if H, then if I do J else do K. Do L.


Q209. Explicate and comment.

The distinction of this kind of order from one which has been made by somebody putting the elements of a set in their places or directing their movements is indispensable for any understanding of the processes of society as well as for all social policy. There are several terms available for describing each kind of order. The made order which we have already referred to as an exogenous order or an arrangement may again be described as a construction, an artificial order or, especially where we have to deal with a directed social order, as an organization. The grown order, on the other hand, which we have referred to as a self-generating or endogenous order, is in English mosts conveniently described as a spontaneous order (Hayek 1976: 142.1-3).


Q470. This is one of a series of problems (469, 471, 472, 473, 474, 475, 476, 477, 478) relating to the same fictional case: The community of Ourville which is considering some options for creating parks to enhance the quality of life of local residents. The amounts are expressed in simple numbers – e.g., $100 – which you can assume to be referring to realistic amounts – e.g., hundreds of thousands.

One part of the staff report talks about discounting. A resident asks "where do discount rates come from?" Your (BRIEF) answer:


Q332. Your client asks you to design a simple research project that will tell us how long a tube of toothpaste should last. It turns out there is a standard amount of toothpaste that is considered "one use" but that real people are all over the map in terms of the amount they use. We need the answer by the end of the week.


Q98. Sketch the decision tree for the following scenario. I want to buy a used car. The car I am looking at is being offered at $4000. The seller says it is in good shape all around. I look it over and agree, but you never know for sure. Suppose there is a 10% chance that it is a total dog and that buying it will be a $2000 mistake. I know a mechanic who will give it a very thorough inspection, for a price. If my assumptions are correct, what's the most I should pay my mechanic?


Q135. Walk us through this diagram

feed10.gif

Q174. Consider this data on the thresholds in a population. Draw a frequency histogram and cumulative frequency diagram. How does this system behave when the expected number is 10? 20? 50? 60? 90?

p0174-table-a.gif

Q99. We want to apply for a home equity line of credit. The bank says it has to know what your house is worth (It has to be worth a certain amount over what we still owe on the mortgage to get a loan at a good rate). A loan at a bad rate will cost $10,000 more than a loan at a good rate. We think there is a 60:40 chance that our house is in fact worth enough to get a good rate. We have a choice between a cheap appraisal ($100) and an expensive appraisal ($1000). A cheap appraisal, we have learned, has a 40% chance of correctly valuing a property. An expensive appraisal is right 70% of the time. Draw a decision tree that will help us figure out what to do.


Q132. Create both a causal loop and a stock and flow diagram for a thermostat, heater, and house. The house is a stock of air. When its temperature goes below some threshold, hot air is added. All along though, hot air is subtracted (or cold air is added) through leaky windows and the like. But the temperature does not change immediately upon introduction of the hot air. What are the challenges of modeling this phenomenon discretely and how can we solve them?


Q444. Tocqueville writes that "Americans combat individualism with free institutions" (246). Explain what he means.


Q365. A storyboard is a technique for graphically organizing the telling of a story. Think about how you would explain Marx's theory of consciousness as a theory of how the human individual is a vehicle for the generation of social order. Imagine how you would represent the theory visually and how you would explain it textually.

storyboard.png

Q440. Define:
regimen (239.6)
erethism (242)
equanimity (242)
apotheosis (243.6)
sacrilege (243.6)
(purely) utilitarian (regulation) (243.7)
liberal professions (244.8)


Q290. What kind of map is this and what is it used for?
sfbaychart.png

Q72. Sketch a flowchart that represents this bit of logic: “if you are a woman then if you are over 40 you should have this test no matter what but if either parent had diabetes women should have the test no matter what. Men only need to take the test if they are overweight.”


Q94. Assuming you are self-interested, what makes more sense: buy a $1.00 lottery ticket with a 1 in five million chance of winning a million dollars, buying a twenty dollar raffle ticket for a local fundraiser with a 1 in 2500 chance of winning a $500 jackpot, or playing a $1 stake game of rock-scissors-paper with the person next to you.


Q184. A campaign director is flying blind. Two tossup states both have 20 electoral votes. All current information is that the chances of winning in each is 50:50.

Draw the event tree that describes the possible election outcomes.

Our campaign director has the opportunity to do one last ad buy of $1 million. Research and experience have shown that an ad buy in a right state where a significant portion of the electorate is still open minded could shift the odds of winning to 60/40. How do we know? We've done lots of audience research that shows how particular electorates respond to this ad's approach. But doing the ad buy in the wrong state (one where folks have really made up their minds) will have no effect on the outcome. What we don't know is which, if either, of these states is the best fit for this type of campaigning.

Draw this decision tree.

Now suppose there is a poll she could do to find out whether state A or state B is the more promising state for the new ad. There is a 50% chance the poll says state A and a 50% chance it says state B. If it says state A then you do the ad buy there and you are certain to increase your chances while things in B stay the same. And vice versa.

What is the value of the information the poll can provide, in electoral votes?


Q210. Explicate and comment:

This means that, though the use of spontaneous ordering forces enables us to induce the formation of an order of such a degree of complexity (namely comprising elements of such numbers, diversity and variety of conditions) as we could never master intellectually, or deliberately arrange, we will have less power over the details of such an order than we would of one which we produce by arrangement. In the case of spontaneous orders we may, by determining some of the factors which shape them, determine their abstract features, but we will have to leave the particulars to circumstances which we do not know. Thus, by relying on the spontaneously ordering forces, we can extend the scope or range of the order which we may induce to form, precisely because its particular manifestation will depend on many more circumstances than can be known to us-and in the case of a social order, because such an order will utilize the separate knowledge of all its several members, without this knowledge ever being concentrated in a single mind, or being subject to those processes of deliberate coordination and adaptation which a mind performs (Hayek 1976: 145.5-7).


Q289. What map is this and what is it "famous" for?

gall-peters.png

Q237. In "The Emperor's Dilemma," Centola, Willer, and Macy talk about “the popular enforcement of unpopular norms.” What does that mean? Why is it a puzzle? What is (are) the mechanism(s) that they think explains it?

Centola, Willer, and Macy “The Emperor's Dilemma"

“Naked emperors are easy to find but hard to explain. It is easy to explain why people comply with unpopular norms—they fear social sanctions. And it is easy to explain why people pressure others to behave the way they want them to behave. But why pressure others to do the opposite? Why would people publicly enforce a norm that they secretly wish would go away? (278)

“One hypothesis is that very few would actually enforce the norm, but no one knows this. If people estimate the willingness to enforce based on the willingness to comply, and they comply based on the false belief that others will enforce, they become trapped in pluralistic ignorance—an equilibrium in which few people would actually enforce the norm but no one realizes this. However, this equilibrium can be extremely fragile. As in the Andersen story [The Emperor’s New Clothes], all that is needed is a single child to laugh at the emperor and the spell will be broken (278).

“A more robust explanation is that most people really will enforce the norm, and for the same reason that they comply—social pressure from others in the group, for whom mere compliance is not enough. To the true believer, it is not sufficient that others go to the right art galleries, display the right body jewelry, purchase the right sports car, or support the right wing. They must do it for the right reason. Zealots believe that it is better not to comply at all than to do so simply to affirm social status (Kuran 1995a, p. 62). Such compliance lasts only so long as behavior can be monitored and social pressure is sufficient to induce acquiescence (Hechter 1987). Thus, true believers reserve special contempt for imposters. Those who comply for the wrong reason must worry about being exposed as counterfeit (278-9).

“The hypothesized anxiety is supported by research on the ‘illusion of transparency’ (Gilovich, Savitsky, and Medvec 1998). This refers to a tendency to overestimate the ability of others to monitor our internal states… (279).

“Applied to the emperor’s dilemma, the ‘illusion of transparency’ suggests that those who admire the emperor out of a desire for social approval fear that their posturing will be apparent to others. They then look for some way to confirm their sincerity. Enforcing the norm provides a low cost way to fake sincerity, to signal that one complies—not as an opportunist seeking approval—but as a true believer” (279).

centola-etal-mechanism-01.gif

Q411. What is Axelerod's fundamental question in "The Evolution of Cooperation"? It has four parts.


Q311. Show that you know your way around how QGIS lets you create a new vector layer of polygons, points, or lines.


Q124. On the grid below …

…draw the line $y=2x + 1$
…shade the area for $x>5$ and the area for $y < 3$
…shade the area for y >= 2x + 1

chart-paper.gif

Q159. Implement the model from problem 158 using this Excel spreadsheet.


Q435. Discuss: Durkheim talks about how society gets us to "accept our lot"; Marx and Engels talk about false consciousness and ideology (we buy into our oppression) and religion as "opiate of the masses"; Weber gave us the notion of legitimate authority. Points of similarity and difference?


Q8. Blank


Q45.
Essay Question
The thinkers and theories we have briefly visited have taken a number of basic starting points: people basically good, bad, mixed; people never change; a small defect defines the entire person; biology is destiny. What’s your take on human nature? What kind of a thing is a person for the purposes of thinking about social control? Which readings or thinkers do you feel you line up with? Which ones do you seem to reject?


Q277. Explain these acronyms: CSV, UTM, JPEG


Q120. My bathtub fills at 10 gallons per minute. It has a leak, though, whereby it loses 10% of it's volume per minute. It's a neat rectangular tub in which each 10 gallons is 2 inches of depth. How does it behave over time?


Q123. Suppose I am sitting on $20,000 and I am trying to figure out whether or not to use it to buy a car. I have a very limited life and have determined that if I buy the car I will have to pay $800 insurance and about 10 cents per mile to operate it and I drive 2500 miles per year. If I own a car I'll drive rather than take the bus on approximately 300 local commutes (saving $1000 and 150 hours net). My time is worth $50 per hour. An alternative would be to put the $20,000 into an investment vehicle (so to speak) that would pay me 7.5% annually.


Q339. Ludwik Fleck wrote: "what actually thinks within a person is not the individual himself but his social community" (Hechter & Horne 59.5). Explain what Fleck's theory of thought collectives is all about by explaining what this means.


Q312. Join a csv data file to a vector shape file.


Q1 In connection with a program that provides alternatives for youth who have a run in with the criminal justice system, a colleague mentions that the program could be more effective if there were an easy way to predict who might benefit from the alternative program. The data suggests that about 75% of the youth in Ourtown are "good kids" who would benefit from the alternative program and 25% are "bad kids" who will not. Your supervisor also says you should come up with some more acceptable terms than "good" and "bad."

It turns out that when a kid is, in fact, "bad," the test gets it right 90% of the time, wrong 10%. But when the kid is, in fact, "good," the test says "bad" 30% of the time.12. Sketch an event tree that captures this and then flip the tree to evaluate the test and provide guidance on how to interpret its results.


Q344. Cohen and Vandello offer a number of supporting findings in their work on culture of honor violence in the American south. Explain what's going on in each of these four summary tables and how this fits in with their analysis.

cohen-vandello-03-table.png cohen-vandello-04-table.png
cohen-vandello-05-table.png cohen-vandello-06-table.png

Q428. Attribute and explicate.

Fate is regarded as a substitute for the parental agency. If a man is unfortunate it means that he is no longer loved by this highest power; and, threatened by such a loss of love, he once more bows to the parental representative in his super-ego — a representative whom, in his days of good fortune, he was ready to neglect. This becomes especially clear where looked Fate is looked upon in the strictly religious sense of being nothing else than an expression of the Divine Will. The people of Israel had believed themselves to be the favorite child of God, and when the great. Father caused misfortune after misfortune to rain down upon this people of his, they were never shaken in their belief in his relationship to them or questioned his power or righteousness. Instead, they produced the prophets, who held up their sinfulness before them; and out of their sense of guilt they created the over-strict commandments of their priestly religion. It is remarkable how differently a primitive man behaves. If he has met with a misfortune, he does not throw the blame on himself but on his fetish, which has obviously not done its duty, and he gives it a thrashing instead of punishing himself.