Q170. Suppose you have a population of one hundred persons. It is divided into five categories of willingness to join a protest all of which depend on people's expectations of how many others will appear at the protest. The thresholds range from very low (I'll go if anyone else is going) to the very high (I won't go unless basically everybody else is going).

Assume the population is divided among these categories as follows:

Challenge of Recruiting Very Easy Easy Average Hard Very Hard
Participation Threshold 1 10 40 60 99
Number at this threshold 10 20 40 20 10

a. If news reports suggest that 15 people will show up, how many actually will?

b. If last week saw participation of 41 and this is widely reported so that everyone knows, how many will come out this week? And then next week? And after that?

c. What if 91 came last week?


Add a New Comment