Decision Trees

Class 1 Math pre-reqs; Basic tree analysis, folding back (dt01Probability dt02Expected Value dt03Translation dt04Simple tree analysis)

Prep

  1. Ryan: Math refresher and Probability Review
  2. Stokey & Zeckhauser, ch. 12, pp. 201-215
  3. Ryan: "Decision Analysis I"
  4. Problems 2, 3, 92, 93
  1. Wikipedia on Decision Analysis

Workshop

Class 2 The value of information (dt05)

  1. Stokey & Zeckhauser, ch. 12, pp. 215-221
  2. Ryan: Working Backward
  3. Ryan: The Value of Information
  4. Problems 95, 100

Workshop

Lab: Building a Decision Model in Excel (part 1)

Prep

  1. Read about TEXT(), conditional formatting, spinner controls in Excel help

Lab Instructions

Class 3 Imperfect tests (dt07) (slides, worksheet (pdf, docx))

Prep

  1. Stokey & Zeckhauser, ch. 12], "Imperfect Tests," pp. 221-236
  2. Ryan: Tree flipping and Imperfect Tests
  3. Problems 102, 103

Workshop

Class 4 Risk and Utility (dt06, dt07) (Slides: PPTX,PDF)

Prep

  1. Stokey & Zeckhauser, ch. 12, "Allowing for Risk Aversion," pp. 216-219
  2. Ryan: Including Risk
  3. Stokey & Zeckhauser, ch. 12, "Utility Theory," pp. 236-254
  4. Problems tba

Workshop

Lab: Building a Decision Model in Excel (part 2)

Prep

  1. tba

Lab Instructions

Skills

Problems

Wiki Pages

See also

Files

File nameFile typeSize
decision-trees-3-worksheet.docxNo description592.77 kBInfo
decision-trees-3-worksheet.pdfPDF document552.7 kBInfo
THE VALUE OF INFORMATION.docxNo description446.99 kBInfo
THE VALUE OF INFORMATION.pdfPDF document377.38 kBInfo

Portfolio

W4P1: 2, 3, 92, 93
95, 100
W4P2: Lab 1
W5P1: 102, 103
W5P2: Lab 2
W6P1: Demo of Comp