## Decision Trees

#### Class 1 Math pre-reqs; Basic tree analysis, folding back (dt01Probability dt02Expected Value dt03Translation dt04Simple tree analysis)

Prep

1. Ryan: Math refresher and Probability Review
2. Stokey & Zeckhauser, ch. 12, pp. 201-215
3. Ryan: "Decision Analysis I"
4. Problems 2, 3, 92, 93
1. Wikipedia on Decision Analysis

Workshop

#### Class 2 The value of information (dt05)

1. Stokey & Zeckhauser, ch. 12, pp. 215-221
2. Ryan: Working Backward
3. Ryan: The Value of Information
4. Problems 95, 100

Workshop

Prep

Lab Instructions

#### Class 3 Imperfect tests (dt07) (slides, worksheet (pdf, docx))

Prep

1. Stokey & Zeckhauser, ch. 12], "Imperfect Tests," pp. 221-236
2. Ryan: Tree flipping and Imperfect Tests
3. Problems 102, 103

Workshop

#### Class 4 Risk and Utility (dt06, dt07) (Slides: PPTX,PDF)

Prep

1. Stokey & Zeckhauser, ch. 12, "Allowing for Risk Aversion," pp. 216-219
2. Ryan: Including Risk
3. Stokey & Zeckhauser, ch. 12, "Utility Theory," pp. 236-254
4. Problems tba

Workshop

Prep

1. tba

Lab Instructions

### Files

File nameFile typeSize
decision-trees-3-worksheet.docxNo description592.77 kBInfo
decision-trees-3-worksheet.pdfPDF document552.7 kBInfo
THE VALUE OF INFORMATION.docxNo description446.99 kBInfo
THE VALUE OF INFORMATION.pdfPDF document377.38 kBInfo

### Portfolio

W4P1: 2, 3, 92, 93
95, 100
W4P2: Lab 1
W5P1: 102, 103
W5P2: Lab 2
W6P1: Demo of Comp