### Week 1 (1.18)

## Course Intro

*What is a modeling? What is simulation? Why learn how to do them? What does the course look like? How will we proceed?*

### To Do List

- Obtain books.
- Ascertain web access and familiarity with digital tools.
- Attend and participate in class and lab.
- Pre-Test.

### Agenda

Ice Breaker Visual Telephone

User's Guide to Digital Tools

Study Hall read pp. 13-17 of Stokey & Zeckhauser

Workshop: Types of Models

##### Portfolio

Lab demo document

Zotero Account

Share a folder

### Week 2 (1.25)

Learning is not what is poured from the pitcher, but what lands in the glass.

-Tara Gray and Laura Madson

## Logic Models

#### Class 1 Introduction to logic models, why, what, how

Prep

- Watch animated video Logic Models for Extension (4:07)
- Logic Models in Public Health (9:56)
- W.K. Kellogg Foundation. 2004. Logic Model Development Guide (scan table of contents and introduction and read chapter 1)
- Write up problem 460, an example from the Kellogg reading.
- Work through Exercise 1 in Kellogg prior to class.

#### Class 2 More

Prep

- Brief introduction to program logic models (outcomes models) Paul Duignan (DOVIEW Software ) (5:03)
- Finish reading Kellogg booklet

#### Lab Building Logic Models in MS Office

Prep

- TBA

### Portfolio

Problem Set 1

Workshop 1

Workshop 2

Lab

### Week 3 (2.1)

That's the wrong way to think about it. Don't try to think about it all at once.

- Jeb Rubenfeld

## Flow Charts

A flow chart is a graphic representation of the logic of a **deterministic** process that can contain **contingencies** and repetition.

#### Class 1 *Prerequisites, if/then/else, basics, action, decision, loops*

Prep

- Ryan: Flow Charts, An Introduction
- Stoked & Zeckhauser, pp. 9-10
- Problems 71, 72
- Univ Plymouth, UK: Flow Charts for Simple Tasks: Tutorial with exercises
- Univ Plymouth, UK: Flow Charts for Classification: Tutorial with exercises
- (optional) Wikipedia Flow Charts

#### Class 2 *Stepwise refinement, division of labor*

Prep

- Ryan: Stepwise Refinement
- Ryan: Division of Labor
- Wirth, N. 1971. "Program Development by Stepwise Refinement."
*Communications of the ACM, Vol. 14,*No. 4, April 1971, pp. 221-227. (OPTIONAL) - Problems 91, 244, 322, 323, 248, 249

#### Lab

Prep

- About.COM: the IF Function)
- MS Excel Help: Switch between relative, absolute, and mixed references
- Problems 73, 88, 89, 90

### Weeks 4,5 (2.8, 2.15)

## Decision Trees

#### Class 1 *Math pre-reqs; Basic tree analysis, folding back* (dt01Probability dt02Expected Value dt03Translation dt04Simple tree analysis)

Prep

- Ryan: Math refresher and Probability Review
- Stokey & Zeckhauser, ch. 12, pp. 201-215
- Ryan: "Decision Analysis I"
- Problems 2, 3, 92, 93

- Wikipedia on Decision Analysis

#### Class 2 *The value of information* (dt05)

- Stokey & Zeckhauser, ch. 12, pp. 215-221
- Ryan: Working Backward
- Ryan: The Value of Information
- Problems 95, 100

#### Lab: Building a Decision Model in Excel (part 1)

Prep

- Read about TEXT(), conditional formatting, spinner controls in Excel help

#### Class 3 *Imperfect tests* (dt07) (slides, worksheet (pdf, docx))

Prep

- Stokey & Zeckhauser, ch. 12], "Imperfect Tests," pp. 221-236
- Ryan: Tree flipping and Imperfect Tests
- Problems 102, 103

#### Class 4 *Risk and Utility* (dt06, dt07) (Slides: PPTX,PDF)

Prep

- Stokey & Zeckhauser, ch. 12, "Allowing for Risk Aversion," pp. 216-219
- Ryan: Including Risk
- Stokey & Zeckhauser, ch. 12, "Utility Theory," pp. 236-254
- Problems tba

#### Lab: Building a Decision Model in Excel (part 2)

Prep

- tba

### Week 6.5,7 (2.25, 2.29)

"The overall name of these interrelated structures is system. The motorcycle is a system. A real system. …There's so much talk about the system. And so little understanding. That's all a motorcycle is, a system of concepts worked out in steel. There's no part in it, no shape in it that is not in someone's mind. I've noticed that people who have never worked with steel have trouble seeing this- that the motorcycle is primarily a mental phenomenon."

- Robert Pirsig *Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance*

## Feedback and Flow

Up to now we have modeled the decisions of individual agents. Now we will transition to thinking about modeling the behavior of systems as a whole. The system may be composed of many agents, each responding to environmental conditions which may be effects their behavior (that is, they may be subject to feedback). We will start with difference equations and then slide into stock and flow models and systems dynamics.

#### Class 1 Math prereqs; system behaviors; difference equations Slides (PDF,PPTX, KEY)

Prep

- Review Using Subscripts if mathematical subscripts are not familiar
- Stokey & Zeckhauser, pp. 47-58
- Ryan: Difference Equations, An Introduction
- Problems: 107 | 108 | 109 | 110 | 111 | 5

#### Class 2 Equilibria

Prep

- Stokey & Zeckhauser, pp. 58-66
- Ryan: "Rates and Amounts"
- Ryan: "Equilibria"
- Problems: 107 | 108 | 109 | 110 | 111 | 5 (WITH full charts, etc.)

#### Lab Difference Equations

Prep

- TBA

#### Class 3 From difference equations to stock, flow, and feedback (Slides: pdf | pptx | key)

Prep

- Stokey & Zeckhauser, pp. 66-73
- Ryan: Stock and Flow Models
- Ryan: Stock and Flow Models II
- Wikipedia Stock and Flow and Systems Dynamics Models
- Kirkwood, Ch. 1 "System Behavior and Causal Loops"
- Problems: 132,134,135

#### Class 4 Systems dynamics simulation (Slides: PDF, PPTX, KEY)

Prep

- Kirkwood, Ch. 2 "A Modeling Approach"
- Problems: TBA

#### Lab Stock and Flow Models

Prep

- Stokey & Zeckhauser, pp. 89-97

### Week 8,9 (3.7, 3.14)

If you optimize everything, you will always be unhappy.

- Donald Knuth

## Linear Programing and Optimization

With decision trees we learned how we can make the best choice among alternatives. But what about when we need to choose a best combination of things to accomplish our objectives?

#### Class 1 Math prereqs, basic concepts, graphing (Slides: PDF, PPTX, KEY, class handout)

Prep

- Stokey & Zeckhauser, Ch.11, "Linear Programming" 177-188
- Ryan: Math Prereqs for LP
- Ryan: Linear Programming I
- Problems 219 220 221 223 224

#### Class 2 Shadow Prices and Sensitivity Analysis (Slides: PDF, PPTX, KEY)

- Stokey &Zeckhauser, Ch.11, "Linear Programming," pp. 188-200
- Excel Easy: Solver Tutorial
- Problems 327 226 227 228 229 230 231

#### Lab Using Solver with Excel

- Excel Easy: Solver Tutorial

#### Class 3 Intermediate Considerations

Prep

- TBA
- Problems tba

#### Class 4 Issues and Caveats

Prep

#### Lab More with Solver

### Week 10 (3.28)

A sparrow in thy hand is better than a thousand sparrows flying.

- Ahiqar, 6th century BCE

## Discounting

Why exactly is a bird in the hand worth two in the bush? Is this actually true? In this module we will learn how to compute the present value of a stream of costs or revenues so that comparisons can be made between different scenarios in which costs and benefits occur over a span of time.

#### Class 1 Basics Slides, Handout

Prep

- Math Prereqs
- Stokey & Zeckhauser Ch. 10, "The Valuation of Future Consequences: Discounting," pp. 159-165
- Ryan: "Discounting"
- Problems TBA

#### Class 2 internal rate of return, payback; Where do discount rates come from? Caveats and issues

Prep

- Stokey & Zeckhauser Ch. 10, "The Valuation of Future Consequences: Discounting," pp. 165-176
- Problems TBA

#### Lab NPV and its friends

Prep

- TBA

#### Portfolio

Problems:

### Week 11,12 (4.4, 4.11)

[The Freedom of Information Act is] the Taj Mahal of the Doctrine of Unanticipated Consequences, the Sistine Chapel of Cost-Benefit Analysis Ignored.”

- Antonin Scalia

## Cost Benefit Analysis

Preamble. Integer ut lobortis lorem, in tristique velit. Curabitur ante metus, mollis vitae dolor quis, pellentesque semper enim. Nulla nec fringilla nibh, posuere gravida erat. Nunc sed odio luctus, efficitur enim venenatis, suscipit ante. In ac orci blandit, iaculis ligula at, aliquet tortor.

#### Class 1 Concepts, Fundamental Rule, The Four Cases

Prep

- Stokey & Zeckhauser, ch. 9, pp. 134-45
- Ryan: Cost Benefit Analysis
- Wikipedia Cost Benefit Analysis
- Problems TBA (on concept and recognizing types)

#### Class 2 (Slides PDF KEY PPTX)

Prep

- Stokey & Zeckhauser, ch. 9, pp. 146-58
- Problem set 1

#### Lab

Prep

- TBA

#### Class 3

Prep

- TBA

#### Class 4 Issues and Caveats

Prep

- TBA

#### Lab

Prep

- TBA

### Portfolio

Problem Set 1

Workshop 1

Workshop 2

Lab 1

Workshop 3

Workshop 4

Lab 2

### Week 13,14 (4.18, 4.25) REVIEW

### Boilerplate

**Attendance** As a graduate class, 100% attendance is expected. You are responsible for obtaining from classmates or other sources any materials missed because of absences. Do not contact the instructor with valid excuses. Attendance at lab, in particular, is expected to be 100%; missed labs may result in final grade attenuation at instructor's discretion.

**Class Preparation and Assignments** You are expected to read, work with, and learn from assigned readings BEFORE the class in which they will be discussed. Do not expect lectures and notes you might take during them to suffice for learning the material. Written assignments are due when they are due without exception. Expect zero credit and zero feedback on any work not submitted by deadlines. Better incorrect and incomplete but on time. Incorrect or incomplete work should still be presented in as professional a manner as possible.

**Digital Tools:** This course makes extensive use of various digital tools. You are expected to check your email at least once every 24 hours for potential course updates. Students will maintain a digital portfolio and most work will be submitted digitally. Please inform instructor if lack of access to hardware or network poses an impediment to course work. Syllabus is subject to adjustment based on class members' progress; current syllabus always online at http://ppol225.danryan.us.

**Academic Integrity** In the academy, plagiarism is a serious breach of trust that destroys one's credibility. Academic dishonesty will not be tolerated in this course. Academic dishonesty includes all types of cheating, misrepresentation of authorship, failure to properly cite sources, as well as deliberate attempts to plagiarize (that is, intentionally or knowingly using someone else’s ideas, words, and/or thoughts without acknowledging the source). All work for which another source is not cited is assumed to be that of the writer. ALL material taken from another source must be cited by in-line references with appropriate information contained in a bibliography or list of works cited. Material from field notes or interviews must be referenced as such.

**Accessibility**To request academic accommodations due to a disability, students should contact Services for Students with Disabilities in the Cowell Building. If you have a letter indicating you have a disability which requires academic accommodations, please present the letter to me so that I will be able to provide the accommodations that you need in this class.

**Grading:** Grades based on class participation (= doing problems and other portfolio work during the course of the semester) (33.3%); module exams (33.3%); final exam (33.3%).

Grading scheme translation:

A = demonstrated excellence

B = demonstrated competence

C = suggested misunderstanding

D = demonstrated misunderstanding

F = not attempted